Developing quantitative & mathematical modelsfor prediction and event markets
POK Capital
Our systems price the same outcome on two venues and take both sides when the disagreement exceeds the cost of trading it.
01 · Firm
We trade our own book.
Illustrative · synthetic market data
POK Capital is a quantitative trading firm, founded in 2025. We run systematic, market-neutral strategies in exchange-traded event markets. If you are interested in working with us, we welcome inquiries at pokcapital@gmail.com.
Our venues are Kalshi and Polymarket US. Prices in these markets are probabilities, so a disagreement between two venues is something to be measured rather than argued about.
We are a small team and intend to remain one. Every component that touches an order was built in-house: the only way to know with certainty how the system behaves at four in the morning, unattended.
- Founded
- 2025
- Capital
- Own balance sheet only
- Venues
- Kalshi · Polymarket US
- Based
- California & Ohio
02 · Strategy
The same outcome, priced twice.
Two venues list the same event and their prices drift apart, pulled by different order flow, different fees, different participants. When that gap exceeds our cost to trade it, we take both sides and hold the pair to settlement. We do not forecast the outcome. We trade the disagreement about it: a market-neutral, relative-value position.
Illustrative · synthetic market data
Hedged at entry
Both sides go on together, or the trade does not happen. We do not leg into a position and hope the other side is still there.
Priced, not forecast
We hold no view on who wins. The only question is whether the two prices sum to less than a dollar.
The bar is a number
The system declines most of what it sees. Edge is thin and short-lived, so the decision to trade is arithmetic rather than judgment.
03 · Platform
We built the whole stack.
Market data, pricing, execution, hedging and reconciliation are all ours. Not as a matter of pride: the edge lives in the gap between seeing a price and holding the position, and that gap cannot be outsourced.
04 · Risk
Most of the code is there to stop us.
Every order passes limits written before the market opened. The important part of the system is not the part that trades; it is the part that decides not to.
Illustrative · synthetic market data
Limits live in the code
Per-order, per-event and firm-wide caps, enforced before anything reaches a venue rather than reported after the fact.
It stops itself
A stale book, an unexplained fill, a venue behaving abnormally: the system halts and pages us rather than trading through it.
Nothing carries unhedged
Unmatched exposure is measured continuously and closed out. We do not carry a naked leg overnight.
Reconciled against the venue
Every position is reconciled against venue records through settlement. If our books and theirs disagree, trading stops until the difference is explained.